Buildup of North American
LNG Terminal Capacity and the Importance of Basis
Differentials to Importers John
Wolff, director, LNG, Zeus Development Corporation Wolff will review by commissioning date how
North American gas importers intend to increase
LNG supplies, focusing primarily on the Gulf Coast.
He will then review current basis differentials
in the Gulf to provide the audience an understanding
of how pipelines price their transportation and
evaluate how rises in basis may affect LNG supply
chain economics.
1:45 - 2:45 PM
Gulf Coast LNG's Impact
on Basis
Mike
Juden, Stuart
Bodden, McKinsey & Company Juden and Inglesby will first show the relationship
between pipeline capacity and basis, illustrating
the rapid rise as utilization exceeds 90%. They
will then discuss what's currently happening to
basis differentials in the Gulf given production
trends on and offshore. They will also review seasonal
demand implications. Then, in the second part of
their presentation, they will describe at least
two scenarios that could happen in the Gulf, including
one where capacity is limited to current approved
projects and another where potentially 15 to 20
Bcfd of capacity is established. And, they will
identify and discuss the wildcards and provide examples
of how markets can behave under orderly and disorderly
integration.
2:45 - 3:15 PM
Break
3:15 - 4:00 PM
Growing LNG Imports
on the Gulf Coast -- Impacts on Gulf Coast Gas Supply,
Flows, and Prices Tom
Woods, senior consultant, Platts Analytics and Forecasting Total gas supply (LNG plus imports) on the Gulf
Coast (U.S. plus Mexico) has been falling strongly
since 2000, driven in large part by the strong decline
in Gulf of Mexico gas production, thus reducing
gas availability to "downstream" markets in the
United States and Mexico. Can the expected growth
in LNG deliveries to Gulf Coast (Louisiana, Texas,
and Tamaulipas) terminals end or reverse this decline?
What will be the effects of increased LNG deliveries
on Gulf Coast gas prices and gas flows? Woods will
utilize the recently completed Platts Quarter 2
2005 North American Gas Outlook to discuss these
and other issues.
4:00 - 4:45 PM
How Will LNG Affect
Gulf Coast Pipelines, Storage and Gas Processing?--
Lukens Energy Perspective Glen
Sweetnam, Hua Fang, Lukens Energy Group Lukens has been involved in several studies
of Gulf Coast LNG terminals, examining effects on
pipeline utilization rates and basis differentials.
Hua has also done work on the option value of LNG
tank storage and liquefaction capacity and is currently
involved in a study of how LNG will impact NGL facilities.
