Impending Shortage
of LNG Shipping Capacity: Fact or Fiction?
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
12:00 - 1:00 PM
Luncheon and Registration
1:00 - 2:30 PM
SHIP DEMAND: A Review of the Timing of World LNG Infrastructure
Development and Resulting Shipping Needs Bob Nimocks, president, Zeus Development
Corporation Nimocks will review annual shipping capacity demand
out to 2010 based on the estimated timing of liquefaction
plant and import terminal completion, possible delays, resulting
wedge volumes and demands, and possible short-term arbitrage.
From this, he will devise three scenarios for shipping demand.
2:30 - 3:00 PM
Break
3:00 - 4:30 PM
SHIP SUPPLY: Orders, Deliveries, Shipyard Capabilities Per-Christian W. Fett, Fearnley's
LNG Team, Fearnley Consultants
Fett will review the staging of LNG ship deliveries relative
to Nimocks' demand
forecast. He will review current construction
status, discuss firm contracts, speculative
capacity, and construction options.
4:30 - 5:00 PM
Discussion and Conclusions
During the conclusions,
the workshop will attempt to quantify the risks of shortages
or overages in shipping capacity and the wildcards that
may lead to unforeseen outcomes.
5:00 - 6:00 PM
Reception
Sources of LNG Supply
for Independent U.S. Terminals: Will There Be Enough?
Thursday, September
16, 2004
12:00 - 1:00 PM
Luncheon and Registration
1:00 - 1:15 PM
Introduction, Review of Objectives Bob Nimocks, president, Zeus
Development Corporation Nimocks will outline the background, premise and
scope for the day's discussion.
1:15 - 1:45 PM
Current Contracts, Plants and Potential Availability John Wolff, director, Zeus
Development Corporation Wolff will review exporting and under-construction
LNG plants and their commitments to supplies into
various markets to determine where and when volumes
of LNG might free up from current or imminent supply
lines. From this, he will outline potential supply
scenarios for independent terminals, gauging shipping
requirements from the previous day's workshop discussion.
1:45 - 2:15 PM
A Super Major's Perspective on Supplying
LNG to Independent Terminals Jean Francois Lambert, Total
Gas & Power North America, Inc. Total, a major integrated LNG competitor, has entered
an option to subscribe 1.0 Bcfd of capacity from Cheniere
Energy's proposed Sabine terminal. Supplies may come
as far as Qatar. The Total speaker has been asked describe
their perspectives on working with independent terminal
developers and why they like the Cheniere Sabine project
over competitors in the market.
2:15 - 2:45 PM
SPA Contracts: Incremental Capacity
Additions and Common Expiration Requirements Ken Culotta, King & Spalding
LLC This presentation will consider how SPA contracts
commonly handle requests from the exporters to the importers
to sell incremental capacities to third parties, as
well as rollover provisions as SPA contracts expire.
The objective is to provide the audience an understanding
of what exporters can do under common SPA agreements.
2:45 - 3:15 PM
Break
3:15 - 3:45 PM
'Super Debottlenecking:' Squeezing Existing Capacity
for Maximum Efficiency David A. Coyle, technology
manager LNG/GTL/gas processing, KBR
Plant owners commonly debottleneck liquefaction trains
soon after startup. Some of the most cost-effective
capacity can be gained by reviewing a plant to determine
where small investments can lead to material increases
in export volumes. Now, with gas prices high, some
owners are taking a second or third look to "super
debottleneck" their facilities. Cole has been asked
to review some of possibilities owners might consider
as they review ways to increase liquefaction capacity,
common capital costs and increases in volume that
might be achieved. Where possible, examples will be
provided.
3:45 - 4:15 PM
Intake Air Cooling Options for Gas Turbines
Bryan Kendig, director of sales,
Rolls Royce Turbine drives can gain efficiency if the intake
air for combustion is cooled. A number of different
methods are available. This presentation will consider
the types, the costs, the time to install and other
issues concerning such systems.
4:15 - 4:45 PM
Liquid Expanders: the Incremental Capacity Increase,
Time to Install and Cost Steve Rush, Ebara International Ebara manufacturers submerged turbine expander
to replace the traditional J-T valve for pressure
letdown. By using the expander, plant operators can
super cool their LNG and thereby increase their cycle
efficiency and plant production.
